Your daily political briefing from Cup of Culture

The Strait of Hormuz is a war zone. Trump’s numbers are in freefall. And the Supreme Court just took a sledgehammer to the Voting Rights Act. Let’s get into it my friends!

The Strait Is on Fire

Monday was not a good day in the Persian Gulf.

The US military launched “Project Freedom” — Trump’s operation to force commercial shipping back through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely closed since the US and Israel attacked Iran back in February. American forces sank six Iranian small boats and cleared a passage through Iranian mines. Two US-flagged merchant vessels made it through under Navy escort.

Iran did not let it go quietly. By the end of the day, Iranian missiles and drones had set an oil port in the UAE ablaze — the first attack on a key American ally since the fragile ceasefire took hold. Multiple merchant ships in the Gulf reported explosions or onboard fires. Oil prices jumped more than 5% in volatile trading.

Iran’s Foreign Minister put it bluntly: there is no military solution to a political crisis. He called Project Freedom “Project Deadlock.”

The ceasefire is shakier than it’s ever been. And we’re one miscalculation away from this getting a lot worse.

Sources: NPR, CNN, Fortune, AP

Trump’s Numbers Are Collapsing

A new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll is bad news for the White House — and it’s bad across the board.

Trump’s disapproval is now at 62%. That’s the worst number of either of his terms in office. His overall approval sits at 37%. Among independent voters, he’s at 25%. Even among Republican-leaning independents, his support has sunk to an all-time low of 56%.

On the issues, it gets uglier. 66% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the Iran war. 76% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living — the issue he rode into office promising to fix. 72% disapprove on inflation.

With six months until the midterms, Democrats now hold a five-point advantage in congressional preference, up from two points in February. Among voters who say they’re absolutely certain to vote, that gap grows to nine points.

The political environment is deteriorating fast for Republicans — and it’s not a one-week blip. It’s a trend.

Sources: Washington Post / ABC News / Ipsos poll

Under the Radar: The Court Just Gutted the Voting Rights Act

This one didn’t get nearly enough attention last week, and it should.

On April 29th, the Supreme Court handed down a 6-3 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais that effectively guts Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The conservative majority ruled that a Louisiana congressional district specifically drawn to give Black voters fair representation was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Section 2 — which for six decades has been the primary legal tool to fight racially discriminatory maps — has been gutted.

The fallout is immediate. Louisiana has already suspended its House primaries while the Republican-controlled legislature prepares to redraw maps. Other states — Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina — are moving fast in the same direction.

According to an NPR analysis, this ruling could produce the largest drop in Black congressional representation since the end of Reconstruction in the 1870s. Between 12 and 19 majority-minority seats are now at risk across the South.

Justice Elena Kagan’s dissent was three words: dead letter law.

This is a five-alarm emergency for multiracial democracy, and it’s getting treated like a footnote. It shouldn’t be.

Sources: NPR, Campaign Legal Center, TIME, Stateline

Political Mood Read

Three overlapping crises at once: a shooting war in the Persian Gulf with no clear exit, an economy grinding people down, and a Supreme Court that just dismantled one of the most important civil rights laws in American history.

All while Trump’s numbers hit historic lows and Democratic voters are more motivated than they’ve been in years.

The midterms are six months out. The pressure is building. The question is whether that energy converts into something at the ballot box — and whether the ballot box itself will still be fair by the time we get there.

Cup of Culture is independent political media for people who pay attention. If this briefing is useful to you, share it with someone who needs it.

— Sean | @seanbartleymusic