Good morning. I’m Sean Bartley, and this is your Morning Cup.
We’re getting closer to the midterms, and the political environment is starting to feel less like background noise and more like the ground actually shifting beneath Washington.
Trump is facing ugly polling. Progressives are stacking victories that establishment Democrats were told were impossible. ICE continues expanding an enforcement machine that deserves far more scrutiny. And here in Washington, some incredibly close races are reminding us that every single vote actually does matter.
Here are the five stories I’m watching this morning.
1. The national debt just crossed $40 TRILLION
The United States has officially crossed another staggering milestone: $40 trillion in national debt.
And politically, this matters.
Republicans have spent decades presenting themselves as the party of fiscal responsibility, usually while demanding cuts to programs working people actually depend on. Yet the debt has continued climbing under Donald Trump.
So the next time somebody tells you we simply “can’t afford” healthcare, housing assistance, public transit, education or stronger social programs, remember what our government somehow always manages to find money for.
The argument in Washington has never really been whether America spends money.
It’s about who we decide is worth spending it on.
2. Newly released emails reveal cooperation between ICE and Iran
This is one of the stories I think deserves much more attention.
Newly released emails show that U.S. immigration officials maintained a quiet channel with Iranian officials that helped facilitate deportation flights of Iranian nationals beginning in 2025.
That deserves serious scrutiny, especially as the Trump administration continues dramatically expanding immigration enforcement.
Meanwhile, closer to home, DHS has recently been searching for a large, ready-to-use detention facility in the Seattle area, while questions remain about ICE’s future involvement with the Northwest ICE Processing Center in Tacoma.
Seattle and Washington need to be paying very close attention to what the federal government is building here.
This isn’t theoretical anymore.
3. Progressives are winning, and people are finally noticing
There is a political story developing underneath all the Trump chaos that might become one of the defining stories of 2026.
Progressive candidates keep winning.
Robert Reich writes today about what he sees as the decline of corporate Democrats, pointing specifically toward victories by candidates including Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and Angie Nixon, despite enormous spending from establishment and corporate-backed forces against progressive campaigns.
Nixon’s upset Senate primary victory is drawing national attention in its own right.
I’ve been saying this for a while now: people aren’t rejecting progressive politics.
They’re rejecting politics that doesn’t materially improve their lives.
Affordable housing. Healthcare. Higher wages. Strong unions. Getting corporate money out of politics. Making billionaires actually pay taxes.
These aren’t fringe ideas.
They’re increasingly becoming the foundation of a political movement.
And November is going to tell us just how powerful that movement has become.
4. Trump has a midterm problem
Donald Trump has plenty of reasons to be nervous about November.
The battle for Congress is tightening as Republicans try to protect their majorities, and Trump’s own political standing has deteriorated. One recent poll put his approval rating at just 33%, a second-term low in that survey.
The stakes couldn’t be much higher.
Control of Congress determines whether Trump’s administration gets another two years with limited congressional resistance or suddenly faces Democratic-controlled committees, subpoenas, investigations and legislative roadblocks.
That’s why these midterms aren’t simply another election cycle.
They’re potentially the first major national check on Trump’s second presidency.
And every special election, primary and congressional poll between now and November is another little piece of that battlefield.
5. A Washington election is headed for a recount because FOUR votes separate the candidates
If anybody ever tells you their vote doesn’t matter, send them this story.
A Democratic Washington state Senate primary is headed toward a recount after the candidates fighting for second place finished just four votes apart.
Four.
Not four thousand.
Four votes.
It’s the kind of race that should permanently destroy the idea that individual votes don’t matter, particularly in local and state elections.
And Washington’s broader primary results have also contained warning signs for Republicans. Analysis of the results suggests GOP candidates here are facing significant headwinds connected to Trump’s presidency.
That makes Washington another place worth watching closely as November approaches.
THE BOTTOM LINE
There’s a temptation right now to look at American politics and see nothing except chaos.
I understand it.
But underneath that chaos, something else is happening.
Progressives are winning races they were supposedly incapable of winning. Corporate money isn’t guaranteeing victories. Trump’s approval numbers are struggling. Republicans are staring down an increasingly consequential midterm election. And races decided by literally a handful of votes are showing us exactly why participation matters.
The political ground is moving.
The question now is whether we organize fast enough to move with it.
I’ll keep watching it.
This has been your Morning Cup.
- Sean