Morning Cup: The Progressive Win Wasn’t a Fluke

Good morning. I’m Sean Bartley, and this is your Morning Cup. Let me know in the comments what you are drinking, iced latte for me today! (Small celebration)

Two days after voters went to the polls across several states, we’re starting to get a much clearer picture of what Tuesday actually meant. It’s good news for the progressive movement.

And there’s a theme emerging that I think deserves more attention than it’s getting:

The political ground is moving.

Progressives just scored one of their biggest victories of the cycle in Michigan. Here in Washington state, Democrats are looking at opportunities to expand their power in Olympia. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown is reaching military families, Republicans in Congress are escalating their pursuit of Anthony Fauci, and the war with Iran may finally be approaching a diplomatic opening.

Here are the five stories I’m watching this morning and through the day today:

1. Abdul El-Sayed’s victory is bigger than one Senate primary

Abdul El-Sayed officially won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Michigan after Haley Stevens conceded Wednesday morning.

The final margin was incredibly close, roughly 14,000 votes, or about one percentage point. But look at what El-Sayed was running against…

He defeated a candidate backed by major Democratic establishment figures while campaigning openly on Medicare for All, affordability and Gaza. AIPAC reportedly spent more than $32 million in advertising against him, while roughly $70 million in outside money was spent against him overall.

And he still won.

That matters folks.

For years, progressive candidates have been told that these positions are too dangerous, too radical or simply “unelectable.”

Michigan voters just tested that theory.

Now comes the harder part.

El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers in November, and Republicans have already started attacking him over his progressive politics and his position on Israel. Democratic leaders, including Chuck Schumer, have quickly rallied behind El-Sayed after the primary.

The primary argument is over.

Now we find out whether this movement can take the energy that won a Democratic primary and turn it into a statewide coalition capable of winning a United States Senate seat.

That might be one of the most important political experiments of the entire midterm election.

2. Washington Democrats are seeing signs of a possible blue wave

There was another interesting signal Tuesday night much closer to home.

Democrats are targeting several Republican-held seats in the Washington Legislature this November, and early primary returns gave them reasons to be optimistic.

Democratic candidates were narrowly leading Republican incumbents across four State House races in Washington’s 17th and 18th Legislative Districts. Washington Democratic Party Chair Shasti Conrad said the results could represent the beginnings of a “big blue wave.”

There were some fascinating Seattle results too.

Progressive Nilu Jenks led the Seattle City Council District 5 primary with nearly 50% of the initial vote, ahead of Julie Kang at roughly 36%. Jenks has questioned Seattle’s surveillance camera system and supports allowing the city’s unarmed crisis responders to respond to some calls without police escorts.

Seattle voters also overwhelmingly approved the city’s library levy, with roughly 72% voting yes in the initial count.

Not every progressive challenger had a good night. Hannah Sabio-Howell trailed incumbent state Sen. Jamie Pedersen badly in the 43rd District primary, although Washington’s top-two system means both are headed to November.

So no, Washington didn’t experience some universal progressive sweep.

But there are enough interesting results here that November could reshape both Olympia and Seattle politics.

I’ll be watching these races very closely.

3. Trump’s immigration crackdown is now sweeping up military families

This one deserves considerably more attention. It’s insane.

An Associated Press investigation found that more than 50 parents and spouses of active-duty U.S. military members have been detained since Trump returned to office.

At least six have been deported. One self-deported. At least eight immediate relatives of service members remain in federal immigration custody.

For decades, immediate family members of military personnel generally received special consideration under immigration policy.

That protection is now being dismantled as the administration expands its mass-deportation campaign.

And think about the contradiction here.

The United States is asking people to serve this country while simultaneously putting some of their spouses and parents into immigration detention.

AP found cases where these detentions have delayed deployments, forced service members to take leave and separated military families from people providing childcare and emotional support. (AP News⁠)

Whatever rhetoric the administration uses to sell this immigration crackdown, stories like this expose what mass enforcement actually looks like once it leaves the campaign rally and enters people’s homes.

4. Republicans just voted to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt

The Republican-led Senate Homeland Security Committee voted along party lines Thursday to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress.

Fauci invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination more than 100 times during testimony last week concerning his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. (AP News⁠)

Committee Chair Rand Paul argues that Fauci cannot legitimately claim fear of federal prosecution because President Joe Biden previously pardoned him.

Fauci and Democrats argue something very different: Republicans have spent years openly talking about prosecuting him, giving him legitimate reason to protect himself legally.

Paul now says he intends to refer the matter directly to the Justice Department rather than first putting the contempt resolution before the full Senate, a move Democrats have questioned legally. (AP News⁠)

And this is where this becomes bigger than Anthony Fauci.

We are watching Congress collide with the Fifth Amendment while a Republican administration controls the Justice Department and Republican lawmakers openly demand prosecutions of people they consider political enemies.

Whatever you think about Fauci, those constitutional questions should matter.

5. There may finally be movement toward diplomacy with Iran

After months of war, Donald Trump is once again publicly suggesting negotiations with Iran are progressing.

Trump said talks with Tehran appear to be “working out quite well,” although he offered few specifics. The administration has suggested an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be close. (Reuters⁠)

That would be enormous.

The war began February 28 with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, followed by Iranian strikes against Israel and Gulf states hosting American bases. The conflict has now continued for months, killing thousands and displacing millions. (Reuters⁠)

There is absolutely reason for skepticism here.

Trump has repeatedly described negotiations positively without producing a permanent end to the conflict.

But diplomacy is still preferable to escalation.

If there is a legitimate opportunity to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and move toward ending this war, the administration should take it.

Not another round of threats.

Not another bombing campaign.

Diplomacy.

The Bottom Line

The story I keep coming back to this morning is Michigan.

Because politics has a funny way of turning things that were supposedly impossible into things that suddenly look inevitable.

Progressives were told candidates like Abdul El-Sayed couldn’t win.

They were told enormous outside spending would bury campaigns like his.

They were told voters wouldn’t support Medicare for All.

They were told criticizing American policy toward Israel was political suicide.

Then voters actually got a say.

And Abdul won.

That doesn’t mean the progressive movement suddenly controls the Democratic Party. It doesn’t mean every progressive candidate is going to win. Tuesday itself gave us plenty of evidence otherwise.

But it does mean something is happening.

Candidates are organizing. Volunteers are knocking doors. Small donors are putting money behind movements they believe in. Voters are challenging assumptions that political consultants have treated as gospel for decades.

And now comes November.

The primaries were the argument over what kind of Democratic Party voters want.

The general election is the argument over what kind of country we want.

That fight is already underway.

I’m Sean Bartley with Cup of Culture.

Thanks for starting your morning with me.

If you can, please upgrade to a paid membership to help keep this growing!