The Morning Cup: 4 Hours That Could Change The Political Map

Folks!

We are officially 48 hours away from some major primaries in Michigan and Washington, the United States may finally have an opening to step back from another disastrous escalation with Iran, and the Trump administration is facing new resistance over immigration and control of the Justice Department.

There is a lot happening. So grab your coffee, and let’s get into it.

Today im going with a double shot of espresso while I wrote this…

Let me know in the comments what you are drinking!

Trump Says He Canceled Another Attack on Iran

We’ll start with what could become the biggest story of the day.

President Trump says he canceled another planned U.S. attack on Iran after intermediaries presented parameters for a potential diplomatic agreement.

That is good news. Boming is bad. This pointless war is BAD.

Any movement away from another round of bombing and toward diplomacy should be welcomed.

But we need to be extremely careful about calling this peace.

There is no durable ceasefire yet. There is no finalized agreement. US, Iranian and Israeli forces remain on heightened alert, and the situation could change quickly as we have seen over the last few months.

There is also a disturbing new development here at home.

Federal authorities are investigating cyberattacks targeting American water systems across multiple states. Officials are examining whether Iranian-affiliated actors could be responsible, but the attacks have not been formally attributed to Iran.

So right now, the situation is fragile to say the least.

If there is actually an opportunity for diplomacy, the administration needs to take it. Americans have already watched another conflict escalate without a clear endgame.

Stopping one round of strikes is a start.

Ending the war should be the obvious goal.

Michigan Is 48 Hours Away From a Political Earthquake

Now to Michigan. The place I grew up. The place I called home for over 20 years.

Tuesday is primary day, and Abdul El-Sayed is entering the final 48 hours of what has become one of the most consequential Democratic primaries in the country. Full stop.

This race stopped being just about two candidates a long time ago.

It has become a referendum on what kind of Democratic Party voters actually want.

El-Sayed has built a progressive campaign around Medicare for All, working-class politics and rejecting corporate influence.

We sat down with El-Sayed a few months and endorsed his campaign.

Haley Stevens has the backing of much of the Democratic establishment and an enormous outside-spending operation supporting her.

Tens of millions of dollars have been poured into this race.

And yet Abdul is still standing, and leading in the polls.

More than standing. He enters the final stretch with genuine momentum and the possibility of pulling off one of the biggest progressive victories of the cycle.

If he wins Tuesday, El-Sayed could also eventually become the first Muslim elected to the United States Senate.

But this is where I want everyone to ignore the temptation to declare victory early.

Polls do not elect senators.

People do.

Today is the final day of statewide early voting in Michigan. After that, this becomes entirely about Election Day turnout.

If you support Abdul El-Sayed, these next 48 hours matter.

Phone bank. Volunteer. Talk to Michigan voters you know.

Finish the job.

Michigan, you CAN DO THIS.

I know you will do this.

Trump Is Fighting His Own Republicans Over the Justice Department (Yes really)

Meanwhile, something wild is happening inside Trump’s own MAGA party.

Trump wants his own personal lawyer, Todd Blanche, confirmed as attorney general.

But Republican Senators John Cornyn and Thom Tillis are standing in the way.

Their concern centers on Trump’s proposed roughly $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, which critics warn could ultimately send taxpayer money to Trump allies and people connected to January 6-related claims.

Trump previously indicated that the idea was dead.

Now he’s threatening to bring it back. Shocking right?

And he’s essentially telling Republican senators that if they refuse to confirm Blanche, he can simply keep Blanche running the Justice Department in an acting capacity anyway.

Yikes

Think about what that means.

The Senate has a constitutional responsibility to provide advice and consent on major presidential appointments.

Trump’s response to senators exercising that authority is effectively: I will just go around you.

The Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to take up Blanche’s nomination Tuesday.

Watch Cornyn and Tillis.

This could become a much bigger confrontation over whether Senate Republicans are actually willing to exercise independent power under Trump.

Another Court Just Put Limits on Trump’s ICE Detention Strategy

There was also an important immigration ruling this week some of you might of missed. I reported about it on threads:

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 that immigrants arrested inside the United States cannot automatically be detained without having an opportunity to seek release on bond.

The Trump administration has been pushing an extraordinarily broad interpretation of mandatory detention, one that could allow people to remain incarcerated throughout immigration proceedings without meaningful individualized review.

Now, another federal appeals court has now rejected that argument.

But this fight is far from over.

Different appeals courts have reached different conclusions, making Supreme Court involvement increasingly possible.

But the fundamental question is bigger than immigration policy.

Can the government lock someone up indefinitely while their case proceeds without even allowing them to ask a judge for release?

(That answer is no)

The Trump administration wants dramatically expanded power to do exactly that.

Federal courts are increasingly pushing back because they are upholding the law.

Washington, Your Ballot Is Due Tuesday

Finally, let’s bring this home. Legitimately.

Washington’s primary is Tuesday.

That means if your ballot is currently sitting underneath a stack of desk crap somewhere, today would be an PERFECT day to rescue it.

Congressional races, legislative contests, judicial elections and important local races are all on ballots across the state. This is all important.

And because Washington uses a top-two primary system, Tuesday doesn’t simply determine party nominees.

It determines who gets to continue to November.

If you missed the earlier registration deadline, you can still register in person through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Use an official ballot drop box and make sure your vote is in by 8 p.m. Tuesday.

Low-turnout elections are where a relatively small number of people can exercise an enormous amount of political power.

Don’t surrender yours because the ballot sat unopened on the kitchen counter.

One Final Sip

On a personal note,Tuesday could be enormous.

Michigan could deliver one of the biggest progressive victories of this election cycle, and it could change EVERYTHING when it comes to how the democratic establishment moves forward with the progressive left.

Here in Washington voters will determine which candidates survive into November. Some of my friends are currently in local contests. My stomach will be turning all day haha

On top of that,Senate Republicans could decide whether they’re actually willing to challenge Trump over control of the Justice Department.

And somewhere behind all of it, diplomats are trying to keep the United States and Iran from sliding back into another round of attacks.

LOTS GOING ON FOLKS!

These next 48 hours matter.

So pay attention.

Vote.

Organize.

And don’t let anyone convince you politics is something happening somewhere else.

It’s happening right now.

See you tomorrow morning.

— Sean