The Morning Cup: Progressives Beat Big Money, Trump’s Midterm Problem & ICE’s Accountability Crisis

Good morning, and welcome to the Morning Cup.

We made it to Saturday, but apparently American politics did not get the memo about weekends.

This morning we’ve got another major progressive victory, some increasingly ugly numbers for Donald Trump heading toward the midterms, new reporting on how ICE is avoiding local oversight, Democrats preparing for what happens if they retake the House, and a Seattle public-safety policy that is basically disappearing in practice.

Grab your coffee. Let’s get into it.

1. Aisha Wahab just beat the money

This is the story I want to start with.

Progressive California state Senator Aisha Wahab has won the special election for the U.S. House seat previously held by Eric Swalwell, becoming the first Afghan American elected to Congress.

And the money came for her.

Wahab faced millions of dollars in outside spending and opposition from pro-Israel political groups, yet won anyway. (Al Jazeera⁠)

Sound familiar?

We keep watching versions of this story happen across the country.

Progressive candidate. Grassroots campaign. Mountains of outside money dumped into the race. Establishment figures explaining why the progressive supposedly can’t win.

And then voters show up.

Wahab’s victory doesn’t mean money suddenly stopped mattering in American politics. It absolutely matters.

But it is another reminder that money cannot manufacture enthusiasm forever.

People are hungry for candidates who actually stand for something.

And progressives should stop acting surprised when progressive policies turn out to be popular.

2. Trump has a serious midterm problem

Donald Trump wanted to enter the 2026 midterms looking like the president who had reshaped the world.

Instead, Reuters reports that he is heading toward November with major foreign-policy promises unresolved and his approval rating at just 33% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll. (Reuters⁠)

The wars and international crises Trump promised he could solve remain unresolved.

Tensions with Iran remain high.

Economic pressure is being felt at home.

And Republicans now have to defend their congressional majorities while carrying Trump’s record with them.

That matters because the midterms aren’t happening in some political vacuum.

Every Republican running for Congress has spent years attaching themselves to Trump.

They wanted the brand.

Now they get the baggage too.

3. New reporting raises serious questions about ICE accountability

This one deserves attention.

The Los Angeles Times reports that ICE has increasingly used federal contracting arrangements and other mechanisms that can allow detention facilities to sidestep local and state oversight requirements.

In some cases, according to the reporting, contracts have been changed to assert that facilities simply aren’t subject to certain state or local laws. (Los Angeles Times⁠)

Think about what that means.

We have an immigration enforcement system already facing enormous questions about detention conditions, use of force and transparency.

And instead of MORE oversight, we’re watching fights over whether local communities are even allowed to regulate what happens inside facilities operating around them.

Meanwhile, separate reporting this week documented the case of José Mejía Hernández, whose attorneys say he suffered a traumatic brain injury and extensive bruising following an encounter with ICE agents in Virginia. DHS disputes key parts of their account and says force was used after he attempted to flee. (The Guardian⁠)

Whatever your position on immigration policy is, government agents should not operate without meaningful accountability.

That shouldn’t be controversial.

4. Democrats are already preparing for a House takeover

Here’s something worth watching as November gets closer.

The Wall Street Journal reports Democrats are preparing an extensive oversight agenda if they regain control of the House.

Potential investigations could examine Trump’s business dealings, his administration’s immigration enforcement, the White House ballroom project and other allegations of abuse or corruption involving the administration and its allies. (The Wall Street Journal⁠)

There is reportedly already disagreement within the party about how far that oversight should go.

Some Democrats want aggressive investigations.

Others worry about allowing investigations or another impeachment fight to overshadow issues like affordability and healthcare.

My answer?

Congress can walk and chew gum.

If Democrats win the House, voters aren’t sending them there just to occupy different offices.

They should lower costs.

Protect healthcare.

Defend workers.

And yes, investigate credible allegations of corruption and abuse of power.

Oversight is literally part of the job.

5. Seattle’s SODA experiment is quietly disappearing

And finally, back home in Seattle.

Remember all the fighting over Seattle’s Stay Out of Drug Area ordinance?

According to KUOW, more than 100 SODA orders were issued in 2025.

In 2026?

One.

Seattle City Attorney Erika Evans campaigned on ending their use, while Councilmember Bob Kettle argues the dramatic decline shows the city isn’t properly using a tool designed to disrupt drug markets. (KUOW⁠)

This is actually a policy debate worth having without reducing everything to the usual Seattle screaming match.

Did SODA genuinely improve public safety?

Did it simply move vulnerable people and drug activity somewhere else?

And if we’re abandoning that approach, what replaces it?

Seattle voters deserve measurable answers to those questions.

Because whether the policy comes from the left, center or right, “we passed something” isn’t evidence that something worked.

The Bottom Line

There’s a bigger story connecting a lot of this morning’s news.

Power is being tested.

Big-money political groups are discovering there are races they cannot simply purchase.

Trump is discovering that political dominance doesn’t automatically translate into public approval.

ICE is facing growing questions about how much power federal immigration enforcement should have without meaningful local accountability.

And here in Seattle, we’re getting a real-world test of whether one of the city’s most controversial public-safety policies actually accomplished what its supporters promised.

That’s why independent political journalism matters right now.

Not because we need another person yelling about whatever happened on Twitter fifteen minutes ago.

We need people willing to follow what happens after the headline.

Who spent the money?

Who gained the power?

What did they do with it?

And did the policy actually work?

Those are the questions we’re going to keep asking.

I’m Sean Bartley, this is Cup of Culture, and that was your Morning Cup.

See you tomorrow morning.

Sean