The Morning Cup: The Midterms Are Getting Real

Good morning, and welcome to the Morning Cup.

We are officially at the point where the midterms no longer feel like some distant political event sitting on the calendar.

They’re here.

And if you look at what happened overnight, you can see just how much is starting to converge at once: a rapidly escalating war with Iran, Republicans increasingly worried about November, another court ruling against the Trump administration, and a genuinely alarming warning for mail-in voters right here in Washington.

So, coffee in hand. Let’s get into it.

The war with Iran just got significantly more dangerous

The biggest story this morning is the escalation between the United States and Iran.

Iran says it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the United States destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. Iran also launched ballistic missiles toward a base used by American forces in Jordan.

At least one sailor has reportedly been killed, another is missing, and Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel.

This is no longer something Americans can treat as a distant foreign-policy story.

A prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz can hit energy prices, shipping costs and eventually the prices Americans pay at home.

And politically, Donald Trump now owns this war.

He owns the escalation.

He owns the consequences.

And Republicans have to explain all of it to voters in less than two months.

Meanwhile, Republicans are gathering in Dallas

Republicans are kicking off their midterm convention today in Dallas, and the entire thing is centered around Trump.

That might not be the advantage Republicans think it is.

Reuters reports that some Republicans running in competitive House and Senate races are skipping the convention as concerns grow about Trump's broader unpopularity, inflation and the war with Iran.

This is the political contradiction Republicans have created for themselves.

They built a party that revolves almost completely around one man. Now they're approaching an election where that same man could become one of their biggest liabilities.

And behind the scenes, the mood apparently isn't great either.

Axios reports growing Republican pessimism about potentially losing control of both chambers of Congress.

We are still weeks away from Election Day. Nothing is guaranteed.

But Republicans are nervous.

They should be.

A court just told the Trump administration it cannot use the IRS as an immigration database

This one deserves more attention.

A federal appeals court upheld an injunction blocking the IRS from sharing taxpayer information with immigration authorities.

The Trump administration had created a system allowing ICE to request taxpayer addresses as part of immigration enforcement efforts. Roughly 47,000 addresses had reportedly been shared.

The court found the practice violated federal taxpayer privacy protections.

Think about what was at stake here.

People interact with the IRS because the government requires them to. Turning information collected through the tax system into an immigration-enforcement tool fundamentally changes that relationship.

For now, the courts have put a wall back up between those systems.

That's a meaningful win for privacy and immigrant communities.

Washington voters need to pay attention to this one

This might be the most immediately actionable story in today's Morning Cup.

New data shows a significant increase in mail ballots being rejected because of late postmarks in Washington and Oregon following changes to Postal Service operations.

According to the Associated Press, more than 20,000 ballots were rejected for this reason during Washington's 2026 primary.

That's unacceptable.

Washington is a vote-by-mail state. Our election system depends on voters being able to reasonably expect that a ballot mailed on time will actually be processed correctly.

So here's my advice heading into November:

Do not wait until Election Day to put your ballot in the mail.

Mail it early, or better yet, use an official ballot drop box when possible.

Your vote is too important to leave sitting inside some USPS processing facility while the clock runs out.

And this is why November matters so much

There are going to be disagreements on the left over the next several weeks.

There should be.

Progressives should continue demanding more from Democratic leadership. We should keep pushing candidates on Gaza, healthcare, housing, corporate power, immigration, labor and every other issue where establishment Democrats have failed to meet the moment.

But November 3 is not an ideological purity test.

It is a question of who controls Congress during the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency.

A Democratic House means investigations.

It means subpoena power.

It means committee gavels changing hands.

It means Republicans no longer having unified control of Washington.

And every House seat matters.

The same goes for the Senate.

You don't have to suddenly become a fan of every Democrat on the ballot. I certainly won't.

But we need to understand the stakes.

Vote for progressives in the primaries. Organize for better Democrats. Pressure the people who win. Protest them when they're wrong.

And when the general election comes?

Defeat Republicans.

Then keep organizing.

Those ideas are not contradictory.

They're how political movements actually build power.

The Morning Cup

There are 55 days until the midterm elections.

Between now and November 3, Cup of Culture is going to be covering these races aggressively because there is an enormous amount at stake.

Not just who wins Congress.

Voting rights. Immigration. The war. Healthcare. Trump's power. The courts. And whether there is finally an institution in Washington capable of putting meaningful resistance in front of this administration.

Republicans understand how important November is.

We need to understand it too.

I'll keep watching everything throughout the day.

Welcome to Wednesday.

Let's get to work.