The Morning Cup: Wisconsin Could Be the Next Progressive Earthquake

Good morning folks! I’m Sean Bartley, and this is your Morning Cup.

It’s Election Day again.

Voters are heading to the polls today in six states: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Connecticut, Vermont, Alabama and South Carolina. And while there are several races worth watching, my eyes are planted firmly on Wisconsin.

Because after what happened in Michigan last week, we could be looking at another massive moment for the progressive movement.

WISCONSIN: FRANCESCA HONG IS THE STORY

Wisconsin Democrats are choosing their nominee to replace retiring Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, and state Rep. Francesca Hong enters Election Day as the clear frontrunner.

Hong is a democratic socialist, a Madison lawmaker and former restaurant owner running on an unapologetically progressive platform that includes universal child care, free school meals and opposition to new data-center development. (The Guardian)

And she isn’t barely leading.

She’s been way out in front.

A State Navigate poll released in late July put Hong at 44%, with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 15% and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 14%. A subsequent Marquette poll had Hong at 46%. (WPR)

The final stretch appears to have tightened somewhat, particularly as Crowley consolidated support. But Hong still enters today in an extraordinarily strong position.

And the story behind Crowley’s candidacy makes this race even more interesting.

Crowley dropped out of the race, then jumped back in after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez ended her campaign. Evers endorsed Crowley, creating what has effectively become a late attempt by the party’s more traditional wing to stop Hong. (State Navigate)

Sound familiar?

Because we’ve watched versions of this movie before.

The question today is whether Democratic primary voters want the ending rewritten.

THIS IS BIGGER THAN WISCONSIN

Just last week, Abdul El-Sayed pulled off his victory in Michigan.

Now Francesca Hong has the opportunity to win the Democratic nomination for governor in one of the most important swing states in America.

If Hong wins tonight, I don’t think we should treat Michigan and Wisconsin as isolated races anymore.

We may be watching something larger developing inside the Democratic Party.

For years, progressives have been told their ideas are too far left, their candidates aren’t electable and voters ultimately want the “safe” establishment choice.

But there’s another theory of politics emerging.

What if voters aren’t looking for safer politicians?

What if they’re looking for politicians who actually believe in something?

Hong winning Wisconsin after El-Sayed’s Michigan victory would give that argument considerably more weight.

And unlike some deep-blue congressional district where Democrats are virtually guaranteed victory in November, Wisconsin is Wisconsin.

The Democratic nominee will face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, a Trump ally, in November.

Winning a progressive primary is one thing.

Winning Wisconsin would be something else entirely.

DON’T SLEEP ON MINNESOTA

Wisconsin isn’t the only progressive versus establishment fight happening today.

Minnesota Democrats are choosing their nominee for the open Senate seat being vacated by Tina Smith.

Progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing Rep. Angie Craig in one of the biggest ideological battles of today’s elections. (PBS)

Flanagan is making the case that Democrats need a more openly progressive politics capable of energizing their coalition. Craig’s argument is essentially the electability case: she has repeatedly won competitive territory and believes that approach gives Democrats the strongest chance of holding the seat in November. (MPR News)

Sound familiar again?

Wisconsin and Minnesota together make tonight fascinating.

Two states.

Two major Democratic contests.

Two opportunities for voters to tell us something about where this party is going.

CONNECTICUT HAS AN INCUMBENT TEST OF ITS OWN

There’s another race I’ll be watching in Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District.

Rep. John Larson has been in Congress for 28 years, and he’s facing former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest and Ruth Fortune in today’s Democratic primary. (CT Mirror)

That race has attracted millions in outside spending, and it represents a different version of the same question we’re seeing elsewhere:

How much appetite is there among Democratic voters for generational and political change? (CT Mirror)

TONIGHT COULD TELL US A LOT

One election doesn’t create a movement.

Neither do two.

But eventually individual races start forming a pattern.

That’s what I’m watching tonight.

If Francesca Hong wins Wisconsin and Peggy Flanagan wins Minnesota, particularly after Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan, the conversation about the direction of the Democratic Party changes again.

Because progressives would no longer simply be arguing that they can win.

They’d be winning.

Wisconsin polls are open until 8 p.m. Central tonight. (WPR)

And when those results start coming in, I’m going to be watching Wisconsin very, very closely.

Because Michigan might not have been the end of something.

It might have been the beginning.

☕ This is the Morning Cup. I’ll see you tonight for the results.

- Sean